According to today’s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
The Public Policy poll gives Mr. Obama a 45-43 lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Just two-and-half weeks ago, a poll by the same organization showed Mrs. Clinton with a 26-point lead. That poll was taken at the height of the controversy over Mr. Obama’s pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Dean Deban, president of Public Policy Polling, said the new results “could be an indication that Democrats in [Pennsylvania] think it’s time to wrap things up.” The new poll surveyed 1,224 likely Democratic voters on March 21 and April 1. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percent.
This conflicts with the latest Quinnipiac poll, which gives Clinton a 9 point lead, but that poll also shows her lead as shrinking by three points since their last poll two weeks earlier.
9 Comments
April 2, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Public policy polls are not the most accurate IMHO, but other polls show Clinton’s lead down to single digits.
The PPP polls I’ve seen tend to show larger variances than most other polls, and swing from extreme to extreme. Could be their methodology, or sampling, or both.
April 2, 2008 at 12:36 pm
NPR’s Morning Edition is doing a weeklong report on Pennsylvania, although it is all very anecdotal. Philadelphia is likely to go for Obama but the rest of the state? They mentioned a “double digit” lead by Clinton without, as I recall, mentioning a source.
HRC is coming to Oregon this weekend, I believe.
April 2, 2008 at 2:30 pm
gummitch – There is strong support for Obama in “Pennsyl-tucky” and the Pittsburgh area. These are Reagon Democrats and I don’t see them voting for Clinton.
When does Oregon vote? There’s been a lot of Obama on TV and less of Clinton on TV. The Obama yard signs are being stolen. Not sure about the Clinton signs because I don’t see as many of them. I think Republicans are scared to death of Obama and rightfully so… Obama will win in November and he has very strong and long coattails.
April 2, 2008 at 2:36 pm
As a professional journalist, it is my job to report the facts objectively, and not to present my own interpretation. However, I can offer possible interpretations from other sources…
NPR: “A variance of -26 to +2 in polling less than three weeks apart suggests questionable methodology and calls into question the validity of claims of a 2.8% margin of error. Nevertheless, overall polling trends indicate that the Pennsylvania race is narrowing.”
CNN: “Our team of the television’s best political analysts is in agreement that polls in the heated, seesaw battleground of Pennsylvania suggest the increasing importance of a Democratic “dream” ticket, as demonstrated on the Wolf Blitzer wizzograph monitor.”
Fox: “These polls in Pennsylvania show two things; (a) Democrat voters are clueless and confused flip-floppers; and (2) obviously these are Democrat pollsters; and (c) Barak Hussein Obama!”
April 2, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Keep up the great work Cats!
April 2, 2008 at 4:50 pm
gorn I happen to agree, I’ve read all the numbers and decided Quinnipeac (sp?) may be the most serious. I guess it’s hard to fins representative samples. They have changed from registered voters to likley voters, to take the fact, that many newbies are around, into account., but that just added to the confusion.
I don’t understand your c)
Cat’s, Clinton’s campaign is broke. Most of the money she has is earmarked for the general election, that maybe why you don’t see so many ads.
April 2, 2008 at 7:01 pm
EV: “I don’t understand your c)”
It’s meant as a parody of Fox News, which if you are lucky is not available in Germany.
April 2, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Not sure what’s happening in other States that haven’t voted yet… but there are Ron Paul signs all over Southeastern Pennsylvania, BIG Ron Paul signs, too, like 6 X 3. Didn’t realize that Ron Paul is still in the race for the Republican nomination.
April 2, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Cats, I know what you mean. I didn’t realize Mike Gravel was still in either until a couple days ago (or longer..) when he announced he was switching to the Libertarian party (?) adn continuing his run that way.
Its like they are invisible.