Big lead in Oregon for Obama?

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People have asked how the primary is shaping up in Oregon, but polling has been slim. Local pollster, Tim Hibbits, who is probably more reliable for Oregon polling than anyone else (esp. national organizations) is giving Obama a 17 point lead over Clinton.

“Every poll done in the last several months has shown Barack Obama ahead in Oregon, but this is the biggest lead so far,” Hibbitts said.

According to the new poll, Obama is winning with male and female voters. He’s also ahead in rural areas and is cutting into another part of the populace.”One of the messages Clinton has been driving is that Obama is having a hard time with white voters, but here in Oregon, he’s clearly doing very well,” Hibbitts said.

I would not be surprised, in fact, if the margin doesn’t turn out to be a lot bigger. The polling methods continue to rely on telephone calls, which in turn rely on directories, which do not include cell phones. Since a significant number of young people (and at least one old guy I know very well) do not have landlines, they’re not being reached during polling. The huge numbers of new Democratic voters who registered in Oregon before the April 29 deadline skewed very heavily to this same demographic and one thing that is clear is that the vast majority of them are planning to vote (or have voted) for Barack Obama.

I also find it very interesting that Hibbitts is seeing Obama leading in rural areas, which in Oregon means either Republican or, in this case, conservative Democratic voters and Bill Clinton has been visiting small towns all over Oregon, outside the traditionally liberal Willamette Valley. The strategy doesn’t appear to be working. That linked article references a Portland Tribune poll that shows Obama leading Clinton 55% to 35%.

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Filed under Election 2008, Election 2008 - Opinion Polls, Election 2008 - Primaries

Tags: gummitch @ TPZoo