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There are few, if any doubts left that Senator Obama will be the challenger of Senator McCain for the White House. And John McCain’s candidacy is in trouble, even before it has lifted off. Up to a short while ago all the focus was on the Democratic primaries and John McCain could tour the country, flexing his muscles for the real fight virtually uncontested.
This is over and it merits a look at the weaknesses of John McCain that will leave his campaign wide open for defeat.
His first and foremost weakness is: He is a Republican candidate in an electoral environment that strongly favours the Democrats. Largely uncommented by the corporate media were the congressional special elections in 2008. Up to now, these Representatives were elected: Jackie Speier (D), Bill Foster (D), André Carson (D), Steve Scalise (R), Don Cazayoux (D), Travis Childers (D). See a pattern here ? Some may argue and are argueing that the Democratic led Congress has abysmal job approval rates, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into votes for Republicans, because they are part of that Congress, too. Expect independent candidates to have a strong showing in fall.
John McCain’s second problem revolves around his own homefront, too and is the flip side of the same coin. George W. Bush and his hard-core supporters. There are still 30% of Americans who approve of President Bush. That is many votes and John McCain cannot afford to lose them. There is a sizeable chunk of Republican voters, who are tieing their votes to issues like abortion and gay rights. And these voters are less than impressed by McCain’s maverick stance of former years, so John McCain was still losing primary votes to Mike Huckabee, even after he was the presumptive nominee.
Result: While the Republicans are hemorrhaging votes on the moderate side of the spectrum due to Bush’s desastrous presidency, McCain opens new wounds on the right.
John McCain’s third and biggest problem is Barack Obama. You couldn’t invent a race with more different candidates if you tried hard. McCain would be the oldest President at the time of his inauguration, Obama is a quarter of a century younger. John McCain is not fully disclosing his health records, and that is, given his history of health problems, really a bothering fact. Obama is young and apparently healthy, so the question is simply not asked. Obama is a 21st century person and John McCain is firmly rooted in the 20th century. John McCain will not be able to shake the Iraq war off, Obama was against the war from the beginning and doesn’t have this problem to begin with. And, on the purely material side. Obama has the most outstanding campaign funding machine and John McCain’s a pauper in comparison. Obama is running a grass roots campaign bringing out new voters that have not voted before. I think it is safe to assume, that nothing a Republican candidate has to offer will bring out new voters in droves this year. Seeing the historic impact of an Obama presidency, John McCain’s advertising strategist Mark McKinnon made good on his vow not to lead a campaign against Senator Obama, because: [Mr. Obama’s election to the presidency] “would send a great message to the country and the world.”. If he says that..
I am not saying this is going to be a landslide affair for Barack Obama in November. There are troubles ahead for Senator Obama as well. There is after all, as Hillary Clinton couldn’t stop pointing out and thus legitimatising the notion, a part of the electorate not prepared to vote for, let’s face it, an African American. This can be overcome at least partly by bringing out new voters and some of those who can’t bring themselves to vote for Obama will not vote for McCain either, but rather stay at home. But, I think, John McCain’s problems are insurmountable really. The November elections are Senator Obama’s to lose, let’s just hope he doesn’t.
47 Comments
May 21, 2008 at 5:54 am
Barack Obama may have his problems with a certain group of “white voters” but this problem is not as great as John McCain’s problem which is anyone with an IQ over 80 will NOT be voting for John McCain.
May 21, 2008 at 6:02 am
I believe a large number of even the loudest and most obnoxious of that particular group of “white voters” will quietly cast their vote for Barack Obama when it comes to the final moment.
I hear the disgust everywhere, and from everyone, for the lies, the manipulation, the corruption, and the greed of the Republicans and the criminals they have allowed to take control of their party.
May 21, 2008 at 6:42 am
Then again, these are distinct possibilities:
Corporate media will continue to show poll numbers between the two in a virtual dead-heat up to the election.
The Republican machine will block the vote of millions of new voters, and electronic machines will always give McCain a slight victory.
Agent-provocateurs will start riots in polling lines of inner city precincts.
And a reality: Republicans will give a lot of air time to Hillary’s comments suggesting that McCain is better than Obama.
And you can bet they’ve already planned out how to undermine an Obama presidency.
May 21, 2008 at 7:24 am
BnF – You bring up a really good point. I was at a meeting last evening and some of the attendees were sharing problems that were encountered at the polls.
This is why I encourage people to get involved and work the polls… to make sure there are any irregularities going on. Become a precinct committee person or become a “poll watcher”. We must remain ever vigilant.
May 21, 2008 at 7:28 am
Agent-provocateurs will start riots in polling lines of inner city precincts
This is why it is important for us to be there. Call the police immediately and get the perps hauled off to jail.
The biggest issue is names not in the signature books. This is when the judge of elections should call the Board of elections for clarification and get provisional ballots. A poll watcher would make note of issues. Another thing that outside poll workers can do is ask people when they come out if there were any problems or issues that they encountered. If there are, write them down and call the local committee contact which should have a lawyer available.
May 21, 2008 at 7:33 am
Jeebus, you’ll have to call in foreign watchgroups next. I didn’t even think about that.
May 21, 2008 at 7:47 am
Can’t find a second source for this but BNF speaks sooth about the campaign of disenfranchisement that is going on now with the 2008 elections, here’s Greg Palast:
“FACT: On Super-Tuesday, the number of Democrats missing from voter rolls in New Mexico exceeded George Bush’s 2004 ‘victory’ total by 300%. No wonder McCain’s campaign says, New Mexico is “in play.” The question is who’s playing with it?”
http://www.gregpalast.com/robert-kennedy-greg-palast-the-final-investigation/#more-2005
May 21, 2008 at 8:10 am
Well BNF is on to it, here’s Greg Palast:
“FACT: On Super-Tuesday, the number of Democrats missing from voter rolls in New Mexico exceeded George Bush’s 2004 ‘victory’ total by 300%. No wonder McCain’s campaign says, New Mexico is “in play.” The question is who’s playing with it?”
http://www.gregpalast.com/robert-kennedy-greg-palast-the-final-investigation/#more-2005
May 21, 2008 at 8:52 am
testing
May 21, 2008 at 8:54 am
Hmm. Greg Palast for you:
“FACT: On Super-Tuesday, the number of Democrats missing from voter rolls in New Mexico exceeded George Bush’s 2004 ‘victory’ total by 300%. No wonder McCain’s campaign says, New Mexico is “in play.” The question is who’s playing with it?”
The fix is in sports fans, they just need to be close in the ‘polls’ and they just need to tip the scales enough to fool the SCLM….. 4 more years of proto-fascism here it comes.
May 21, 2008 at 9:27 am
I am not optamistic, sorry..I have vision’s of a giant mess to come….We may have to fight in the real sence and it still may not be enough….
I have a new neighbor, nice enough at first appearance but dreadful after short conversation’s last week end..Think he was either bored or lonely cause he bird dogged me and a couple other neighbor’s all week end to the point the other’s made comment’s to me about him….Twice when I was out pulling weed’s he came over and started talking polatick’s….Yike’s! Reminded me of my X right off…He has a good job, new truck, trailer and to my suprise is in favor of nuking Iran…Damn…I tried to direct his attention to Peace as the answer and the fact that Iran is no more a threat than Iraq was and just like my X could hardly get a word in..
I finelly gave up and walked the Bear an extra time just to get away from him, it worked for awhile…This guy, just like the X like’s to dominate, control and listen to him self speak instead of exchanging view’s….Gonna leave him to it, hope he start’s talking to himself cause no one else out here want’s to listen to his crap….
While the fishermen and vet’s are the upside of my week end this guy was the down side for sure…Blessings all
May 21, 2008 at 9:43 am
We should petition Jimmy Carter to get involved in poll watching. He’s done it for other countries. Maybe he needs to round up the people he’s worked with in international elections to watch the polls.
May 21, 2008 at 9:46 am
Hey #1 I’m going fishing this weekend, woohoo!
You could always pat him on the back, after you get some catfish stink bait on your hand and he walks around smelling himself all day. Or you could spill a bait bucket on him, it doesn’t even need to have bait in it. Or you could just tell him to go Cheney himself.
May 21, 2008 at 10:12 am
Yah, all of the above would be good solution’s Shayne except he is a neighbor now….He is the son-in-law of one of our old time resident’s and I cleared and moved him in….Ugh!
I must be profesional and just keep my distance, we live so close out here…Not even 20 feet away in the slot next to mine…At least he keep’s his lot clean, better than the wacko’s that were there and are now up the road with the other crazie’s….Our little camp is devided now….We have the back biting lunatick’s up at the end of the road and the quiet,mind our own business bunch down toward’s the lake…..Interesting..I just ignore the crazies and let them do their thing, which is bad mouth all of us and leave someone else alone…..LOL..Noticed this guy was up their way some as well this past week end….George was telling me yesterday he ran him off cause he walked up to his window and was yacking at him while he was trying to watch his Mariner’s game…..LOL…He will learn or not who to pester and when…No one pester’s George during a Mariner’s game with out getting his rath..George said “what’s wrong with this guy, is he a drunk or stupid”? I asked why and he said he had to tell him three time to leave him alone while the game was on and the last time had to yell at him to go away….I said, I think just stupid….Life in the slow lane doe’s get interesting…..Sorry for the length…Know why he is seperated from his wife..Another chuckle here…..Blessings..Off to do my once a month errand’s and bill’s…
May 21, 2008 at 10:57 am
I’ll say it again… volunteer to work at the polls and if you see anything suspicious, call the party’s attorney right away.
May 21, 2008 at 11:22 am
Yep #1, definitely stupid.
May 21, 2008 at 11:23 am
Who do you call to be a poll watcher Cats? I used to be an election judge but I’d rather be more proactive. Obama’s my Senator maybe I’ll email him.
May 21, 2008 at 11:46 am
Call your county/town/township Board of Elections. They should be able to give you the information that you need or you can try the local Democratic Committee or State Democratic Committee. In PA we are divided into “counties” and each county has a Board of Elections that manages the voter registration and everything else regarding voting etc… I didn’t know any of this stuff until I volunteered for the Kerry campaign and then next thing I knew, I was a committee person for my township. Thanks for asking.
May 21, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I live in a county that’s almost entirely Republican. That’s why I don’t trust them. I think I’ll write my senators Obama and Durbin.
May 21, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Well I volunteered through Obama’s office so I’ll be in position to do something election day I’m sure.
May 21, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Wow! I’m impressed, ladies…I don’t want to do that myself but admire you for doeing it…Our state is all mail in now, I think, so atleast one woulden’t have all the foot traffic of the public coming and going to vote..
Been pretty active on the net and with legislature’s through email’s, thinking of doing less, not more….Blessings
May 21, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Shayne – be sure to insist on getting a “poll watcher” certificates so that you can go inside and mark off names of voters. With this certificate, you can stay inside after the polls close and literally watch the count. Your Board of Elections will give the information about the poll watcher certificate. It may have a different name like poll counter or something like that. Great, you joined the campaign
It’s fun because you will now have access to inside information.
May 21, 2008 at 5:51 pm
John McCain will bury Barack Obama in a landslide victory. Obama is a fatally flawed candidate that knows next to nothing about national security issues or economics. These flaws have already been exposed. Why do you think Hillary Clinton has been doing so well in these later primaries?
May 21, 2008 at 6:08 pm
What are you smoking redstater?
May 21, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Did a skunk enter this thread, a redstate skunk? It sure got stinky in here.
Poor John McCain. Read that Chuck Hagel is supporting Barack Obama. And the Republicans in my neighborhood voted for Ron Paul. John boy is going to get his arse handed to him in November.
May 21, 2008 at 10:36 pm
I’ve always voted Republican, and I am really concerned that an Obama presidency would almost certainly result in a tax increase. But I have to say McCain’s age bothers me. A lot.
Mary, mom to many
May 21, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Mary, the budget deficit and the resulting money we owe to other nations, like China, has caused the devaluation of the dollar. That is part of what’s increasing the cost of everything we need including gasoline. There are worse things than paying taxes. Bad schools for example. No health care.
This aversion to paying taxes for anything by people who believe that taxes are horrible has put this country in crisis.
May 21, 2008 at 10:52 pm
yup…
1. Republican
2. white
3. old
May 21, 2008 at 11:15 pm
redstaterighthand, welcome to TheZoo.
I have to say though: Dream on! There is no way McCain can win a landslide against Obama.
Barack Obama knew enough about economics, however, to be able to realize the gas tax holiday was a sham. And don’t get me started on national security, just look what happened on a Republican President’s watch.
May 21, 2008 at 11:24 pm
welcome metamorphallic, I had to use some more words to make it into a post, but you summed it up nicely. I don’t care about your #2 spot, however, I’m colourblind in that respect. And I am not really against old people holding office, it is the contrast I and it’s appeal to voters I’m talking about.
May 21, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Owlhaven, welcome. I was at your website and let me tell you, I greatly admire women like you and their commitment to children and their family.
I do not understand the knee-jerk reaction of Americans and, to a lesser degree, Swiss people when it comes to taxes. As a mother of ten you will know about everybody having to contribute to the common welfare according to his or her capabilities. And it is not always by choice, sometimes it has to be enforced to overcome the egoism in all of us.
A family can work together and members of that family contribute by their work they do, chores, money making, home making, whatever. In a large society the government will have to do this and as they can’t coordinate 300 million people they have to charge money, a.k.a. taxes to pay for the services needed by the community. If it is charged wisely and along the lines of financial prowess and then used wisely for the common welfare, what is the problem with taxes?
I think taxes and good government are vital to protecting the weaker members of society from getting thrown under the bus by the stronger.
May 22, 2008 at 4:30 am
Ah, taxes.
My family did not get a tax “pre”bate from the government because according to them, we are richer than coots!
Despite the fact that we have two kids, my wife and I both drive pre-2004 vehicles (that are paid off), don’t have credit card debt, have decent savings built up, etc.
The point is, those who have “invested” a tiny portion of what we have in taxes to the common good, got a pretty good chunk back (the more kids you have, the more you got), while we got nothing.
How is that fair? How is giving someone something they have not earned, “helping.” Call it what you will, but all the U.S. gov’t is doing, is playing Robin Hood. Except upper-middle-income Americans are not the Sheriff of Nottingham; we are hard working people trying to raise our families the best we can.
And for the record, I came from a family making less than $70k per year. I joined the military and then put myself through college. I made myself what I am today. There is no excuse for anyone of average intelligence NOT to do the same here in America.
May 22, 2008 at 4:57 am
I don’t understand why people are so mean. They complain about people that have less than they do and they feel bitter that they were able to “pull themselves up” so they expect everyone else to have the same strength and opportunities. Yes, I will say opportunities because often times there is someone else in a person’s life that helps them along, inspires them to do better, cheers them, and believes in them. No person succeeds without some type of help or support or inspiration from another person unless they are a crook, liar and thief.
May 22, 2008 at 5:05 am
And don’t get me started on taxes… I don’t have a problem paying my fair share. What bothers me is that my tax dollars are being used to finance the murder of innocent people, the bush/cheney illegal war in Iraq, my tax dollars are paying for premium health insurance for bush/cheney, Congress and SCOTUS while way too many Americans don’t have and CAN’T afford health insurance, and my tax dollars are being handed over to rich and powerful oil companies and corporate agriculture. It’s how my tax dollars are spent that bothers me. I’m happy to contribute to a better education for everyone in this nation, I’m happy to contribute to health care for everyone in this nation and I’m happy to lend someone a helping hand when they need it. I’m not happy spending tax dollars on building the largest military in the world and world history.
May 22, 2008 at 5:12 am
dobeman, it looks to me like you don’t need this false stimulus check, congratulations! Sadly, your children and mine will be paying for this rebate idiocy.
Regarding your last paragraph, again, congratulations! Wow, if I’d come from a family making anywhere near $50K a year, I’d have considered us very rich indeed. I was never in the military, but I married a man in the military, does that count? I raised my sons on my own, surely that counts for something. I’m white, of greater than average intelligence (according to the paper tests), and finally attending university in my 40s.
You’re right, there’s no reason I couldn’t have done things just the way you did. I just didn’t work hard enough.
May 22, 2008 at 5:25 am
“Obama is a 21st century person and John McCain is firmly rooted in the 20th century.”
I think McCain is floating somewhere between 17th and 18th century. Otherwise great post, man!
May 22, 2008 at 5:26 am
Very well said, Cats.
May 22, 2008 at 5:40 am
Gee dobeman, how horrible for you that you make too much money to get a rebate. As many of us around here know, being financially solvent is a bitch.
May 22, 2008 at 6:33 am
Yeah, Shayne, being financially solvent can present its own set of problems like complaining about people of lesser means.
Thanks, Zooey. Elitists just piss me off
My family didn’t have much growing up and I didn’t start college until I was 30 while raising two very young daughters on my own. Gee, my first husband was military also, and he left me with two small children without any financial support. What a guy!
May 22, 2008 at 8:22 am
Good post’s critter’s…Well as you know I am self taught and raised…I did help raise 3 husband’s and went to the school of hard knock’s along with raising children, their’s and mine…..
I did not nor will I file to get the refund check although I do qualify for it….What other people do because of their need is non of my business other than I do help neighbor’s often when their need’s arise…..If I could change this country and the world I would , mainly stopping these GD war’s and the people that pramote them…
I’m happy for people when they have good fortune and I live simply and happily on what I have…
This rebate thing , in my opinion is far to little to late…The working, middle class, single parent’s, military and poor are being raped by this administration on purpose..The money is borrowed from china and the people recieving these fund’s will be required to pay them back in may way’s including deduction’s from next year’s taxes…..Bet there will be intrest’s attached as well..There is no free lunch and believe me $300 would make a tiny impact on my life….$3,000 might but not $300….
Now that I am retired my need’s are small compared to working famalie’s…
My neighbor who is in the same financial position as I am ran out and filed for the first time in 10 year’s..He plan’s to use his refund check for gas to go see his youngest daughter in Calif….He hasen’t seen her in 5 year’s, she is a pre teen…Yes, he is a very old parent of a young child..Think what $3,000 would of done for him….He could of paid for an air line ticket to have her sent here and spent the summer with her dad….
I wonder how many more won’t file and I wonder about all the people under the bridge’s with out mailing addresses, homeless and destitute that won’t get a thin dime……In Seattle along there are hundred’s…..I wonder and I grieve for their lot in life, bet $300 woulden’t matter to them much either but housing, a job and health insurance would………Blessings
May 22, 2008 at 9:03 am
Interesting while these checks are coming gasoline prices just keep going higher and higher. Today they showed that more people are putting gas on their credit cards than ever before. So after people pay of the gas on their credit cards they can take the rest of their rebate and buy gas.
May 22, 2008 at 9:36 am
Good post Shayne,..Kind of like paying for a dead horse, or like paying the co=op for the feed the horse got while it was alive….Then there’s alway’s the intrest charged on the old feed bill….Blessings
May 22, 2008 at 9:39 am
Exactly #1.
May 22, 2008 at 11:31 am
Great comment #1 thoughtful and caring as always.
I must say we did file for the check and we already have an idea of what we want to do with it. We need new flooring for our bathroom so we will be buying rubber flouring made out of recycled tires made in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Yeah, buying local and keeping jobs in PA. If the check never comes, when then so be it.
May 22, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Only Three? You’re So Generous.
Let me add a few more:
1. He’s flip-flopped more times than a fish out of water since he got the nomination.
2. He has trouble remembering what he voted for, who we’re really fighting, and where he is.
3. There is a 47% chance he will keel over before election day anyway.
May 22, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Hi Antenna Wilde – thanks for providing more reasons.
May 22, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Keel over before election day Antenna Wilde? Oh great and Mitt would end up being president. That would be even worse than McCranky. Yikes.
Comments are closed.