Only Hillary Can Win the _______ Vote. NOT.

Jump to Comments

Recall those misty water-colored memories of the Democratic primary campaign season, where we were treated to a never-ending series of helpful talking points from the Clinton camp. Things like, “Only Hillary can win the key swing states dominated by hardworking blue collar white folk” or “Only Hillary can carry Florida because of her superior age, experience, and appeal to the Jewish and Cuban blocks, and because Obama wants to disenfranchise Florida voters” or “Hillary’s ardent female supporters will vote for McCain rather than Obama if the nomination is ’stolen’ from her”. Now that Obama has the nomination, these same talking points are used as evidence that Clinton should be placed on the ticket in the second spot.

Maybe not. Yesterday’s Quinnapiac University poll seems to indicate that some hardworking white folks, old people, Cubans, Jews, and, yes, even women are capable of thinking beyond pundit sound bites.

The poll examined three key battleground states - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, and found Obama leading by significant margins in all three:

• Pennsylvania shows Obama leading McCain by 12%
• Ohio shows Obama leading McCain by 6%
• Florida shows Obama leading McCain by 4%

Clinton won all three primaries by a wide margin (if one can include the unofficial and uncontested Florida primary as a Clinton win). Indeed, Pennsylvania and Ohio victories had been touted in the media as major turning points in the race, revealing Obama’s inability to “close the deal”.

And those bitter, angry women voters? They favor Obama by 24%, 10%, and 12% in the three states, respectively. So much for that theory.

What about the racial divide? McCain does lead Obama by 10% among Florida whites. However, he leads in Ohio by only 3% and Obama leads McCain among white voters in Pennsylvania by 3%. That seems to indicate an overall even split of the white vote in those “hardworking blue collar white” states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, not quite the redneck throwback that was indicated in the media.

Aside from putting to rest the talking points from the primary season, these poll results also call into question the wisdom of an Obama-Clinton ticket, because her supposed strengths apparently would be redundant, if not fully offset by her negative baggage.

The poll surveyed:

• 1,453 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
• 1,396 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
• 1,511 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

Details can be found here.

37 Comments

Filed under Election 2008

Tags: gorn by any other name @ TPZoo