Why WERE the polls so far off in NH?

What happened last night? Why were the polls that had Obama winning by 13% (according to Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll) the day before the election really that far off? Why were Hillary Clinton’s numbers the only ones that got a big bump, while all the rest of the numbers pretty much matched the polls?

Brad Friedman of BradBlog had an interesting post last night raising the question of how the polls could be so far off, and had some interesting questions and insights. It was especially interesting to me after last night viewing the DVD “Uncounted – – the new math of American elections“, a documentary that looks at election fraud and voter disenfranchisement in our elections since 2000. It was a stunning documentary, and frankly, I cried throughout the entire thing. I had great difficulty going to sleep last night. A couple months ago I watched the excellent documentary called “Hacking Democracy“, with that one impacting me in a big way, but this one for some reason hit me harder.

I think the worst part for me is the fact that I no longer trust our voting system. I question every result. I don’t know if anything happened last night or not. Worse yet, I don’t know if we have any way of finding out if something DID happen to swing the results. There are forces at play that have a lot riding on the outcome of our elections, and with this privatizing of our system of voting (the machines), that lack of any paper trail or receipt and way to verify the results, and nobody being allowed to look into the source codes being used, the system is entirely vulnerable to abuse, and frankly, our election is at risk of being hijacked in an invisible and insidious way – completely out of the view of the American people. Anyone questioning the results would just be accused of ‘sour grapes’ or being a ‘conspiracy theorist’. It is clear by many investigations and experts looking into the last two presidential elections that votes were messed with in a big way, with experts pointing out the simplicity and ease with being able to do it. We are still using the same machines that still have no way to know if your vote was counted, or counted correctly. And, this going into another presidential election.

I don’t know what happened or didn’t happen. I will say that again. I am only saying that I have alarm bells going off in my head. I have questions and I really hope this gets looked at. Because, if these machines start flipping votes in the primaries, our presidential election hasn’t got a chance in hell of reflecting the will of the American people.
The post from BradBlog this morning raises some questions and red flags for me. Brad Friedman includes a number of charts and polls along with his own observations and questions. If you get an opportunity to read this please do. Its our democracy at risk, and these are valid questions.

He writes:

Other Pre-Election Numbers, For Republicans and Rest of Dems, Nearly Dead on the Money…
I’m not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight.What’s going on here? Before proceeding, I recommend you read the third section of the post I just ran an hour or so ago, concerning the way the ballots are counted in New Hampshire, largely on Diebold optical-scan voting systems, wholly controlled and programmed by a very very bad company named LHS Associates.Those Diebold op-scan machines are the exact same ones that were hacked in the HBO documentary, Hacking Democracy. See the previous report, as I recommend, which also includes a video of that hack, and footage of the guy who runs LHS Associates.That said, the the pre-election pollster’s numbers (NOTE: that’s not Exit Polls, but Pre-Election Polls!) were dead-on, for the most part, on the Republican side, as well as on the Democratic side. Except in the do-or-die (for Hillary) Clinton v. Obama race. I’m watching MSNBC right now, and they all seem to agree that the results, for the moment, defy explanation.I concur.
Brad includes many graphs and charts from a number of different sources to prove his point and raise the questions.
After the charts, he says:
They were all not just wrong, but wildly wrong. But only for the Clinton/Obama race.

For myself, I don’t care who gets the nomination as long as the elections they win are come by honestly, and their win reflects the actual votes cast by Americans – ALL Americans who went in to vote. I care about the integrity of the process. I support democracy, and the right to vote and have those votes counted. I want to live in a country where they people decide who will lead and how we will be governed. Not corporations, the elites, or special interests. There is no place in this for a person who would deprive Americans in our democracy of the right to vote and to have their vote counted. They must win on their own merit, on their integrity, their stand on the issues, and their message.

I have a lot of respect for Brad Friedman. He has been on top of this issue of voting fraud and disenfranchisement since the 2000 election, maybe longer. That’s as long as I have been reading his blog anyways. He has stayed on top of every story and investigation that has hit the radar and kept us informed. He deserves to be commended.

I feel that it is essential to go back to using paper ballots. No system is perfect, but must we use a system that is the least safe? The easiest to manipulate? There is a reason that California just de-certified the voting machines in that state, and Ohio’s SoS issuing a directive to vote with paper ballots in 2008. It is time to fight to keep this democracy intact, and not allow it to be hijacked by those who would control the outcome. Our votes are sacred. This deserves to be looked at.

4 thoughts on “Why WERE the polls so far off in NH?

  1. “There’s a rabbit off there” was my first reaction to the results in the Dem primary.

    On the whole election corruption issue, those of us who read Greg Palast or read almost any critical analysis of US elections since 2000 (written by any reputable source *outside* the US of course, because no sources *inside* the US pay attention to it) would not be shocked at all.

    Americans do not want to hear that their ‘democracy’ is fundamentally flawed. The votes do not all count, but the dollars always are. Why were Kucinich and Paul arbitrarily removed from the ‘public eye’ (i.e. corporate media eye)?

  2. as i understand, NH has lot of independent pple, who decided their vote in the last 24 hr. Well, i dont think it is a conspiracy of some sorts since after poll figures confirm lot of woman did vote for Hillary who were earlier earmarked as “Obama-woman”…well, hope Hillary wont cry again !

  3. I don’t think of it as a conspiracy.. I think of it as a plan that has been used before with a high degree of success.
    Again, I wrote this piece because I am concerned about the integrity of the process, and under the circumstances, we can’t be afraid to look at the process and make sure it is working like it is supposed to (without being compromised).

  4. My personal take is that Hillary won because she trailed in the Iowa straws. People who are fervent about a trailing candidate in the top tier are more likely to go out and vote when their favorite is on the ropes then those whose favorite is at the top of the heap.

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