1 + 1 + 1= War? – An attempt at analysis

The election season and the primaries, along with all the polling and speculation have taken some of the spotlight from a development which may lead to another military engagement. For the first time in his Presidency George W. Bush has visited Israel and some things he said there are worth listening to.

In Ramallah on Thursday Bush has promised support for the Palestinians and announced a peace treaty within a year from now, a Palestinian state would indeed be possible. He bolstered this with his assertion that the US are increasingly critical of the Israeli settlements politics and see the settlements as a crucial obstacle to said peace treaty.

Israel is historically security-conscious to say the least. Being peppered by rockets from neighboring countries on an almost daily basis and the rethoric of extremist politicians like the Iranian president Ahmadinejad don’t help to allay their fears. The Israeli settlements as well as the fence are part of a national security policy, or are at least called such.

So, in order to change the US position on the settlements, the United States will have to offer something in exchange, to up the security issue for Israel. The Israelis deal with Syria by themselves as proven by the still somewhat mysterious air strikes last fall. Israel, will not or cannot, deal with Iran by itself, to get Israel’s concessions on the settlements, the US will have to give them – Iran?

Let’s change the perspective a little bit and just look at recent news and rhethoric:

Right there in the middle of it all is the incident in the “Straits of Hormuz”. It’s been reported on, videotaped, another video showed up and the incident still got murkier! That felt like Pakistan’s handling of the Bhutto assassination where new videos and new evidence was shown every few hours and the persistent feeling was: Each video serves a purpose and the truth is not the purpose.

There’s more to it, that you can see on a video. The US military claims there was a shift in strategy by Iran. The more provocative acts were due to an increased use of Revolutionary Guards speedboats. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards were labeled “terrorist” only last summer in an unusual move to raise pressure on Tehran, at the height of the tensions along the lines of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. Well the nuclear threat was debunked as exaggerated in the NIE last year. Remains the terrorist threat by an officially named terrorist group, which happens to be part of the Iranian government and which is increasingly involved in “provocative incidents”. And still some more: The top U.S. commander in Iraq claims: Iran’s involvement in Iraq bombings has stepped up again in January, according to CNN.

So where are we now? Israel needs an incentive for seriously engaging in Middle East peacemaking. The chatter on Iran is increasing, the arguments for military actions are being played by the audience. There is one more thing missing to make the case for war. The moral high ground, the “it’s-the-right-thing-to-do”-perspective.

Enter Yad Vashem:  President Bush visited the Holocaust History Museum while on his Israel visit yesterday. And here something unusual happened: After being shown the aireal pictures of Auschwitz George W. Bush uttered the first acknowledgement by an American president of failure to strike Nazi death camps. He reportedly said to Condoleeza Rice: “We should have bombed it.” And later in his speech:”(…) It is a sobering reminder that evil exists, and a call that when evil exists we must resist it,“. (emphasis added)

This setting for an acknowledgement of such an importance. The fact that he discussed this more or less publicly with his Secretary of State. Connecting mistaken US policies of the past to one of the biggest crimes of humanity, is either another huge blunder by a historically ignorant man, and a diplomatically ignorant woman, or an unbelievably cynic move to justify policies of military involvement in the past – or the future.

So let’s do the equation again:

“Israel incentive” + “Iran is dangerous” + “It’s the right thing to do” = ?????

“Europeanview” wishes you all a peaceful, healthy and  fun filled weekend! Take Care!

11 thoughts on “1 + 1 + 1= War? – An attempt at analysis

  1. In order for boy Bush to attack Iran, the military has to go along with his war or Isreal’s war and I’m not so sure that boy Bush has the full backing of the military. It was the military that exposed boy Bush’s lies about the encounter with the Iran speed boats last weekend. Sounds to me like the US military is not very keen on starting another war, especially if the war is about protecting Isreal. Americans are becoming tired of propping up Isreal. The US is heading for a recession and the people are tired of all this war. If Guiliani’s campaign is broke, that means that no one is sending him money. To me, that indicates that Americans are tired of 9/11 talk. We want to move forward and that is why Barack Obama is taking the lead in the polls. He speaks of hope and unity and that’s what people want to hear. Someone needs to let boy Bush know that he is a lame duck and he will get nothing accomplished this year. It’s over for him.

  2. Good Morning Cats. Yes I believe you are right, the military and the people are tired of this massive f*ck-up. However, there is still an influential group, presumably centered around Dick Cheney, which still works hard at achieving their goal of attacking Iran. And for me that means we have to watch out for them. They have nothing to lose, so they don’t care.

    For my part, I am glad when the next 373 days are over and the gang is out of office.

  3. Wow, this is amazing, EV.

    Der Chimperor: “It is a sobering reminder that evil exists, and a call that when evil exists we must resist it.”

    Ohhh the irony…

  4. Well, here is the translated text of the second video of discussion between the people on the Iranian patrol boat:
    It sounds perfectly appropriate to me. They are Iranian patrol boats just off the shores of Iran trying to ascertain the intention of US warships. Who is trying to provoke whom??
    At least the video with audio from the Iranians SOUNDS real, and wasn’t patched together or dubbed.
    I have heard it reported that nobody actually documented with video anything being thrown off the Iranian speedboats.
    As soon as the press starts backing off this story a bit, CNN starts showing the military saying about other incidents that happened a while back (that just hadn’t been reported) trying to bolster the fact the Iran is threatening. This to me sound desperate and ridiculous. It is no surprise that this administration is absolutely lathering to start bombing Iran. They have been pushing hard trying to sell this for a year now. They have all those war ships in the Strait of Hormuz trying to intimidate and trigger an incident. I think now they are trying to force. it. If it doesn’t happen soon, I don’t think they will get their war.
    Here are three more articles of interest. #1 article, #2 article, #3 article.

    Oh, and put together the timing of this ‘incident’ right before Bush takes his first trip to the Middle East of his ENTIRE presidency, to “broker a peace deal” (or to gather support from neighboring nations against Iran). There was an article in the news right before Bush left about the fact that he would be meeting with the Israel security officials to be ‘briefed’ on options for striking Iran.

  5. Here’s another good article on the ‘incident’ a couple days ago in the Strait of Hormuz:

    Others have questioned the supposed mines that were claimed to be dropped form the Iranian boats.

    “The bit about the ‘white boxes’ being dropped into the water seems almost equally dubious,” writes Glenn Greenwald. “Neither the video of the incident released by the U.S. military, nor the video version released by the Iranian government, includes any such event, nor are there any references to it at all on the audio.”

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