RealClearPolitics.com
Now that the mainstream media has higher priority news, with headline-grabbing stories from places like Beijing, Georgia, and John Edwards’ pants, they’ve been a bit less eager to invent news about presidential polling. So, it seemed a good time for our once-in-awhile look at the current numbers.
According to the floating average of polls at RealClearPolitics.com, as of 8/12 Obama’s lead now stands at 4.8%. It’s interesting to look at where the polling average was a month ago, and the month before that, and so on, to get sort of a “big picture” view. There is amazing consistency.
Here’s how the numbers have shaped up:
August 12:
Obama 46.8, McCain 42.0 ( Obama +4.8 )
July 12:
Obama 46.8, McCain 42.6 ( Obama +4.2 )
June 12:
Obama 46.8, McCain 42.5 ( Obama +4.3 )
May 12:
Obama 47.8, McCain 43.3 ( Obama +4.5 )
April 12:
Obama 45.0, McCain 45.0 (tie)
Although the fluctuations seen with a finer grained view are more pronounced, with this higher level view it looks like there has been little change for the past four months, despite epic trips to Europe, petty smear campaigns, the rise and fall of oil, and even Paris Hilton.
RealClearPolitics lists some 71 polls during the above time period, of which Obama holds a record of 63-5-3. In the most recent two months, he stands at 32-1-1.
Of course, as the French learned at Beijing, it doesn’t matter how far ahead you are and how favored you are to win, it only matters whose hand touches the final wall first. There’s still a long way to go, and the winning side is the one that will fight with relentless passion all the way to the finish.
TheZoo 
I hope the winning side is Barack Obama and a Democratic Congress.
I find it interesting that the lily white pundits don’t understand why Obama doesn’t have a bigger lead, if you know what I mean.
Shayne, I’d like to think it’s because mainstream America has become colorblind enough that it’s a non-issue with the TV talking heads – sort of off the radar.
We’ve kind of lost sight of the fact that it’s incredible that a black person could be ahead by 5 points against an old establishment white guy. Anything more than about a 25% share might have been thought implausible up until now.
Of course, if you even allude to the fact that a 5% lead for an African-American is historically huge, then you will be called out for playing the “race card”.
Gorn… good point, we don’t want to be accused of playing the race card 😆
OT:
China Ceremony a Big Show
I heard on public radio this morning a Hillery supporter who is organizing a protest: he is urging those who voted for her in the primaries to vote McCain in the general election. I am certain he would like to see McCain become the next President just out of spite.
Thus be the fruits of her campaign: 4 more years of Republican Rule and a defacto dictatorship.