The Watering Hole, Monday, August 20th, 2012: New York, The New Battleground State?

It’s always been pretty much a given that New York State’s electoral votes in a Presidential election go to the Democratic candidate. While most of the state is Republican-leaning, the heavily-populated centers of New York City and Albany tip the electoral scales in favor of Democrats. And despite the recent redistricting, which lost the state two of its electoral votes, its 29 votes should still be reliably blue. Okay, while not an actual guarantee, New York should still be able to be counted on for President Obama in the upcoming Presidential election. Regardless, I don’t expect to see either Presidential candidate, or their surrogates, doing any campaigning in New York.

On the other hand, some of the Congressional races within the state are now, frighteningly, likely to remain in the grasp of the Republicans. Our own district, now redistricted as The Fightin’ Eighteenth (as Stephen Colbert would say), went from Democrat John Hall to Tea Party Republican Nan Hayworth in the 2010 Tea Party tempest. According to

“In 2010, no state was stung by the Republican sweep of the House more than New York. Before the election, New York had three Republican representatives. After the dust settled, Republicans increased their numbers in the New York delegation nearly three-fold — eight of New York’s 29 seats were Republican.”

Those eight Congressional seats are now in play again, and, as Salon puts it:

“For Republicans, simply retaining the gains of two years ago would be a major win, both in the state and nationally. And they’re confident that they’ll even pick up new seats. “They’re more likely to pick up two than lose two at this time,” said New York Republican consultant Susan Del Percio.”

However, the website, paints an even more dire picture in New York. The site references the New York Times race ratings, which indicate that 10 New York congressional districts could go Republican: “the 1st, 11th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th and 27th districts.”

If Republicans retain their current eight Congressional seats, that would be bad enough news for us and for President Obama. If they gain any more seats on top of those eight, it bodes even worse for all of us. And if you combine such a scenario with the fact that so many Republican-governed states are doing their utmost to suppress Democratic votes, well…do I need to draw a map?

This is our daily open thread — got any good news?


167 thoughts on “The Watering Hole, Monday, August 20th, 2012: New York, The New Battleground State?

  1. Waking up to learn of the suicide of director Tony Scott is not the way I wanted to start the week.

  2. This may be partially offset by the new seat in Washington state almost certainly sending a Democrat to congress….

  3. Redistricting doesn’t take away electoral votes, a change in population does.

  4. Has anybody gotten Rep Dumbass Akin (R-Dark Ages) to define ‘legitimate rape’. As opposed, of course, to ‘illegimate rape’?
    Keep it up, numbskulls. We’ve got an election to win.

    • Any rape that results in pregnancy wasn’t a real rape, because the girl’s body allowed insemination of the egg, thereby giving consent to sex.

    • We should re-brand this entire issue as Republican Anti-American voter disenfranchisement

      • Ok, yes, I know that Mitt Romney is no Adolf Hitler, and I know that Reince Priebus is no Joseph Goebbels. And GOP does not translate directly into Nazi when it comes to party identification nomenclature. But still, given all the voter suppression, the racial innuendo and outright hatred, the fear of anyone and everything not ‘white like me’, one can, I think, safely sense more than a little concern over the similarity of process that occurred in Germany in the 1930’s and that which we see going down every day here in today’s US.

        Why is that? Why do so many always seem to willingly support the steady shift toward what is, in essence, nothing but the most current trend toward Fascism, i.e. full power to the state and to the corporation in consort with outright and blatant damning of the ordinary individual?

        Mussolini pretty much defined what we’re seeing here, today, way back in the 1920’s when he was quoted (in Encyclopedia Italiana) as saying,

        “The Fascist conception of life stresses the importance of the State and accepts the individual only in so far as his interests coincide with the State. It is opposed to classical liberalism [which denies] the State in the name of the individual; Fascism reasserts the rights of the State as expressing the real essence of the individual.

        “Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”

        It began in Italy, then in Germany in the 1930’s, and now it’s happening here. Why is that? Why don’t we ever learn anything? How can so many be so stupid as to allow such nonsense, and for generation after generation after generation?

        Makes me think stupidity may well ultimately prove to be the norm for the human species.

  5. If, according to Todd Akin, stress hormones stop impregnation during a rape, as anti-choicers/abortionists claim, isn’t every rapist also an abortionist and therefore a murderer?

  6. Mittens is speaking on MSNBC right now, and just said “our rights come from the creator.” Yep, he’s going to go with Paul Ryan’s bullshit remark.

    He’s speaking very fast for him, and he sounds fucking desperate.

  7. All you need to now about the two parties attitude to democracy – the Democrats want to see more people voting, the Republicans don’t.

  8. Now Paul Ryan is going on and on about his idiotic ideas about the economy, pumping his arm over and over again, while Mittens stands there with his arms down at his sides, looking at him adoringly.

    • She snotted T-Snooze as well this weekend. She’s making me go all gooey ….

  9. Nate Silver thinks that the remarks of Todd Akin could drag him down as much as 10 percentage points.

    As much?

    It ought to drag him down to the kuckle-dragging base of the the 27%’ers.

    • Unfortunately, in Missouri, home of bigoted idiots, that still gets him elected by 3+ %..Jeebutz/

  10. “In other news: the Dead Sea is still dead.” GOP fact-finding mission, 8/18/12

  11. One more day in the 100s today, and then thunderstorms tomorrow, with temps in the 80s behind it. Thank you, FSM.

  12. What’s REALLY scary to me is that Todd Akin was leading in the Missouri polls and was set to defeat McCaskill. Still, there’s no guarantee he’ll be replaced and could indeed win.

    If that happens I’ll know for sure this country is doomed.

  13. QOTD:

    “While nobody thinks that rape is ever “legitimate,” plenty of Republicans—including e.g. a majority of the House Republican caucus in a series of votes in spring 2011 on amendments sponsored by Rep. Chris Smith of New Jersey—have distinguished between cases of “forcible rape” (where abortion ought to be allowed) and other forms of rape, where they are not so sure,” – David Frum.

    Democrats need to hammer relentlessly on this issue.

    • Specifically, force them to delineate each and every type of ‘non-forcible’ rape and come up with a yes, this does, no this doesn’t matrix of abortion restrictions.

    • True. Making Chrissy look stupid is about as difficult as making a lake damp. And I love it!

      I am wondering about Ms. O’Brien. Is she in contract negotiations or just sick of the BS? Either way I’m just waiting for Bill0 to start calling her a “baby killer” in the hopes that someone will “take action”. I had all but given up hope that anyone in the MSM would start saying “that’s just not true” and I’m enjoying it immensely. The really amusing part is that the Reichwhiners keep trying to spout false talking points. Have they not been paying attention or is the Dunning-Kreuger effect just so strong that they think they can BS their way through it?

  14. John McCain, in making the argument against the defense cuts in the sequestration, has admitted that government ‘creates jobs’, by citing statistics of how many jobs would be lost. See it at the Econ page at TP.

    • It was a Hell of a good run. It’s an especially good run considering that the fundies of her early years predicted a short life and career because she dared to break convention. Of course, most of them have been dead for decades.

  15. “{Akin} later invoked 9/11 to explain his pro-life views, saying the first responders didn’t ask for identification of those they saved because all lives are important.”

    Dig, dig, dig….

    Some Republican has to kneecap this asshat.

  16. QOTD II:

    “Just because somebody makes a mistake doesn’t make them useless,” — Todd Akin today, doing “damage control.”

  17. Phyllis Diller, the housewife turned humorist who aimed some of her sharpest barbs at herself, punctuating her jokes with her trademark cackle, died Monday morning in her Los Angeles home at age 95.

    “She died peacefully in her sleep and with a smile on her face,” her longtime manager, Milton Suchin, told The Associated Press.

  18. So Akin is feebly trying to claim he misspoke. I tend to not get too wound up with gaffes. Everyone does them and the media make too much of them.

    But this was not a gaffe. He was explaining his viewpoint on the subject, and referring to so-called “expert” opinions on the matter. This was a deliberate comment. Not a gaffe.

    • I agree, zxbe. This was a well-thought out remark about what Akin really believes, and even with women sick unto death of this sort of bullshit, Akin just didn’t get that memo, or he just didn’t care.

      • I don’t think it was “well-thought out” because I don’t see people like Akin actually thinking anything through. This sort of outburst is just galvanic jabber triggered by words like “rape” and “abortion”.

    • It can only be interesting if the Paulistas show up in force. Will they be seated? Or will they get the “oh, yeah, well that doesn’t really count” from the RNC. Is the crazy guy allowed to address the hall?

      • I wasn’t even going as far as the Paulbots yet! I was just thinking of the chaos that is Mitt Romney’s campaign, and all the additional chaos in the repiggie party. Paulbots are the cherry on top!

  19. Some night that week is going to so much fun I’ll have to miss work the next day. 😀

  20. Akin has absolutely no idea what he did wrong and wouldn’t accept it if it was explained to him. In his mind he has done no wrong and is, in fact, incapable of doing wrong. Calling him “lizard brained” is a disservice to lizards.

    • I need to retain this Daily Kos piece for the next time some moron claims that Politico is “leftist.” One of their paid morons explains what “we all know” Akin was really saying.

      And one of the “brainy and reasonable RW trolls at the Plum Line” huffed and puffed about Akin “misspeaking”. No explanation coming forward about what Akin meant to say.

    • Slick looking bird Pete.
      I love vee-tails
      They get a bad rap which is undeserved.
      Almost every airplane I built when I was a kid evolved into a vee-tail.
      I flew in circles a lot.
      Control line speed.

      • Thanks. I’ve always loved V-tails myself and they are great when one needs lower drag like a sailplane or racer. The problem comes with full scale and pilots who probably aren’t likely to survive no matter what they are flying. They used to call the Bonanza a “spinning doctor killer” but that actually had more to do with a fairly high performance over all and those doctors would have spun in anything with a similar wing loading.

  21. These idiotic repiggies actually think “forcible rape” is a more acceptable version of “legitimate rape.”

    • Also in “My World and Welcome to It”, based on Thurber’s writings. Also in some old, old sitcom, I think it was called ‘The Farmer’s Daughter’ (and a quick check of Wiki confirms that), which also had a very young Tim Matheson as Windom’s son.

      • Cool now I don’t have to watch it…..although he is doing a solid job of highlighting the contradiction in the Scrooge / Marley position….

        “Complete lunacy” – Morgan

    • Well I usually skip Piers Morgan as I think he is a hack and has his nose dirty on phone hacking and so on in the Murdoch scandal…. if I hear it I will confirm one way or other

      Anyhow headline here – “Todd Akin pulls out” – heh, heh

    • Margaret Hoover – first caption a ‘CNN contributor’ then ‘Republican Consultant’ – after she outs herself with ‘we’…..

      • Hoover – “We used to have a ‘Big Tent’ on social issues….”

        TtT – “Not really, maybe more of pillow case, with two holes for the eyes…”

    • Morgan opens addressing his comments to an empty chair, with the chyron underneath: ‘Rep. Todd Akin’s empty chair’.
      The quote: “Congressman, you have an open invitation to join me, in that chair, whenever you feel, up to it, because if you don’t keep your promise to appear on the show, then you are what we would call in Britain, a gutless little twerp!”

  22. Oh gawd, the mouse just tripped the mouse trap, and it didn’t die right away.

    I don’t want the little bastard in my house, but I didn’t want it to suffer.

    • I’m sorry. I don’t know how to advise you from here, but if I were there, I would, shall we say, “make the problem go away.” And, no, I wouldn’t tell you what I did.

      • Thanks, Wayne. 🙂

        After it stopped twitching, I used a long pair of kitchen tongs to grab the mouse and the trap, wrapped them both in paper, and then tied them inside a plastic bag. As soon as the sun is below the horizon, I’ll walk them to the dumpster graveyard.

    • We don’t usually get (live) mice in our house unless one of the cats brings one in to play with. If I can, I try to catch the mouse myself and put it back outside.

      In our old office building, we had traps inside and out. I hated finding a ‘successful’ trap. I actually caught a mouse (sans trap) behind one of my filing cabinets, and set it free in the orchard.

      • You’re braver than me. I’m not afraid of mice, but I certainly don’t touch them. I was hoping he’d run outside on his own, but he didn’t.

        • *Sigh* You obviously didn’t take my advice as given in yesterdays thread at 11:03am. Perhaps you didn’t have the necessary tools. Cest la vie moi petit souris

  23. Our local online paper – the one that offered me my own blog – has a ‘news’ category called “Unusual Suspects – weird and unusual crimes.” In the most recent report, I got a good laugh out of this one:

    “A police officer apparently saw a New Rochelle man toss a Bible into the flower bed of [a] Harrison home. The officer issued the man an appearance ticket for littering.”

    Yeah, get that garbage out of my flower bed!

  24. How weird, I just had to block someone on FB — a friend of a friend — because she just wouldn’t leave me alone. She even sent messages to my inbox! I’d never think of doing something like that, although I guess I could. Creepy bitch.

  25. Who says NASA is a waste of money? Idiots, that’s who.

    Those who say NASA is an economic leech have no idea how tiny a share NASA has, so here’s a quick visual. Turn a tax dollar into one hundred pennies. Pick up one penny. Now, take a pair of shears and cut off a sliver of that penny, something slightly less than half. That sliver is NASA. And the Curiosity rover? Per capita, it cost each American seven dollars. The war in Iraq, by comparison, will cost each of us around $12,000. The $850 billion Wall Street bailout cost more than NASA’s entire 54-year existence.

    • Akin staying in the race is the best thing for Democrats, so I hope the vile freaks succeed. There are too many pictures and videos of him with Ryan. The establishment Republicans are losing control of their far right fringe.

      • They are, just now, realizing the effects of opening Pandora’s box (voting in the damn TeePeers in 2010

      • I dislike guilt by association but in this case anything but outright condemnation is unforgivable. Of course, Vulture and Voucher have their own assortment of downright disturbing behavior.

  26. Ready for his closeup: Thanks to conscientious members of the public, countless hours of rehabilitation work by the Oregon Coast Aquarium, and the assistance of the Navy and Sea World, this once ailing green sea turtle is healthy and ready for transport to San Diego where he will be cared for before returning to the wild. Tomorrow, Tuesday August 21, the turtle will travel from Newport, OR to San Diego, CA. Stay tuned here for updates on his journey.

    • I would be interested in the corresponding diagram of the male reproductive system according to Akin.

  27. One of many reasons I love The Onion.,29259/

    WASHINGTON—In the wake of last weekend’s highly controversial comments from Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), top Republican officials condemned the congressman’s statements Monday, calling them a black mark on the party’s otherwise flawless record on women’s rights issues. “Throughout our history, whether it’s been our position on birth control, abortion, or equal pay for equal work, Republicans have always stood together with women, listening to their needs and fighting for issues that are are important to them. That is why we were stunned that someone from our own party could have made such insensitive remarks or expressed such uninformed opinions about women,” said Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus, calling Akin’s comments an outlier, especially when one considers the huge, progressive strides—both personally and professionally—the GOP has helped women make over the years. “We apologize for Congressman Akin. And we want the nation’s women to know that they will continue to have no greater ally than the the Republican Party.” Priebus added that while there was certainly no excuse for Akin’s comments, after 150 years without a single insensitive remark against women, perhaps the GOP was due

    • So, for God’s sake, go out there and rape a Christian!

      Srsly, did God get Mary’s consent before, or after He impregnated her?

      I guess one could argue Christ was the child of an absent father, thus absent fathers are a good thing. Then again, Christ was given the death penalty for his recalcitrant ways….

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